2019 Oscars Winner Predictions – Who will win, who should win

The telecast is just one week away – and this year, the weeks leading up to it has been marked with one controversy after another. Starting with the plan to add a baffling Most Popular Film category (huh??) back in August (which is now delayed & hopefully gone forever); to the hosting debacle with Kevin Hart in December which leads to no host this year; to the audacity of actually planning to award four categories —Cinematography, Editing, Make-Up/Hairstyling and Live Action Short — during commercial time in order to shorten the telecast… boy it seems like the Academy is off its rocker!

Naturally there’s an uproar by the public as well as members of the Academy that made them to finally reverse the decision (d’oh!) so now ALL 24 Award categories will be presented on stage in the Dolby Theatre, and included in the broadcast. It was interesting seeing all the reactions on Twitter, this one illustrates it best just how ludicrous it is to exclude cinematography and editing category…


As for the no-host thing, I personally don’t mind that at all. I mean why is it necessary to have a big long opening monologue? They could even move one of the musical numbers to the beginning. If the goal is to shorten the telecast, the intro should be the one area to trim.

In any case, per usual, it’s time for me to post my predictions for the winner, as well as which one I’m rooting to win. Apparently 32 nominations went to 12 films on the list of the top 50 grossing movies of the year (per Useless Daily).

BEST PICTURE

Nominees:
Black Panther
BlacKkKlansman
Bohemian Rhapsody
The Favourite
Green Book
Roma
A Star Is Born
Vice

Who will win: ROMA
Who should win: A Star Is Born

Out of this list, I’ve only seen five but hopefully I’ll get to see Roma and BlackkKlansman before Oscar night. I have a soft spot for A Star Is Born and considering it’s from a first-time director, Bradley Cooper, it’s all the more astounding. However, though many thought that A Star is Born would be the favorite to win Best Picture, after the nominees were announced, the movie began to lose steam and the current favorite seems to be Rome from Alfonso Cuaron leading with odds at -110.


BEST ACTOR

Nominees:
Christian Bale, “Vice”
Bradley Cooper, “A Star Is Born”
Willem Dafoe, “At Eternity’s Gate”
Rami Malek, “Bohemian Rhapsody”
Viggo Mortensen, “Green Book”

Who will win: Christian Bale
Who should win: Christian Bale

I actually don’t mind anyone else winning in this category, though I have only seen Rami Malek in Mr. Robot and though he’s good there, I’m just not enthused about seeing Bohemian Rhapsody. VICE is not a perfect movie but Christian Bale’s performance was simply astounding, such a chameleon actor who once again proved his chops in disappearing into a role.


BEST ACTRESS

Nominees:
Yalitza Aparicio, “Roma”
Glenn Close, “The Wife”
Olivia Colman, “The Favourite”
Lady Gaga, “A Star Is Born”
Melissa McCarthy, “Can You Ever Forgive Me?”

Who will win: Olivia Colman
Who should win:  Olivia Colman

I have been a longtime admirer of Olivia Colman and she’s truly astounding in The Favourite. Having won Golden Globe, BAFTA and SAG (pardon my error, Glenn Close actually won SAG this year) but Colman also won British Independent Film Awards. I think it’s safe to say she’ll go home w/ the Oscar statuette this year too!


BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

Nominees
Mahershala Ali, “Green Book”
Adam Driver, “BlacKkKlansman”
Sam Elliott, “A Star Is Born”
Richard E. Grant, “Can You Ever Forgive Me?”
Sam Rockwell, “Vice”

Who will win: Sam Elliott
Who should win: Richard E. Grant

This is the first nomination for Sam Elliot, which I find hard to believe. I thought he was terrific in A Star Is Born, and I have a feeling he’d get the most Oscar votes. I was wowed by Richard E. Grant’s performance in Can You Ever Forgive Me? which mixes repulsion and pathos perfectly.


BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Nominees:
Amy Adams, “Vice”
Marina de Tavira, “Roma”
Regina King, “If Beale Street Could Talk”
Emma Stone, “The Favourite”
Rachel Weisz, “The Favourite”

Who will win: Regina King
Who should win: Amy Adams

I can’t believe this is Amy Adams’ sixth Oscar nomination!! Now I don’t want her to win simply because of that, but I think her performance as Lynn Cheney is a worthy one. I have a feeling this might not be her year again, somehow I feel like Regina King would win this category. I don’t have a problem with that, she’s definitely memorable in If Beale Street Could Talk.


BEST DIRECTOR

Nominees:
Spike Lee, “BlacKkKlansman”
Pawel Pawlikowski, “Cold War”
Yorgos Lanthimos, “The Favourite”
Alfonso Cuarón, “Roma”
Adam McKay, “Vice”

Who will win: Spike Lee
Who should win: Spike Lee

Firstly, I think Bradley Cooper is SNUBBED!! Apparently A Star Is Born directed itself as it garnered Best Picture nom and seven other categories 😉  Now, out of this list, the one I don’t think deserved to win is Adam McKay as VICE is such an uneven film, but my gut says first-time nominee Spike Lee (finally!) is likely to win Best Director.


BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

Nominees:
Incredibles 2, Brad Bird
Isle of Dogs, Wes Anderson
Mirai, Mamoru Hosoda
Ralph Breaks the Internet, Rich Moore, Phil Johnston
Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse, Bob Persichetti, Peter Ramsey, Rodney Rothman

Who will win: Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse
Who should win: Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse

After watching Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse, I knew it would get major award nominations and really it’s the best of the bunch! In terms of technicality, the unique animation style AND the engaging, moving story, it kind of leads the pack by a long shot.


BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

Nominees:
The Ballad of Buster Scruggs, Joel Coen , Ethan Coen
BlacKkKlansman, Charlie Wachtel, David Rabinowitz, Kevin Willmott, Spike Lee
Can You Ever Forgive Me?, Nicole Holofcener and Jeff Whitty
If Beale Street Could Talk, Barry Jenkins
A Star Is Born, Eric Roth, Bradley Cooper, Will Fetters

Who will win: Can You Ever Forgive Me?
Who should win: Can You Ever Forgive Me?

It’s always so tough to predict the screenplay category, and I haven’t seen the first two on the list. I’m not as enamored with If Beale Street Could Talk as I did with Barry Jenkins’ Moonlight. I love A Star Is Born, which absolutely moved me, but Can You Ever Forgive Me?, which centers on celebrity biographer Lee Israel, has such sharp wit and makes for such a compelling story of a flawed character. It’s won Writers Guild Award which usually is a good predictor for the Oscars.


BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

Nominees:
The Favourite, Deborah Davis, Tony McNamara
First Reformed, Paul Schrader
Green Book, Nick Vallelonga, Brian Currie, Peter Farrelly
Roma, Alfonso Cuarón
Vice, Adam McKay

Ethan Hawke in ‘First Reformed’

Who will win: The Favourite
Who should win: First Reformed

Now, I haven’t seen First Reformed yet, but again, I’m astonished that Paul Schrader has never been nominated for an Oscar before. I mean he’s written such classics as Taxi Driver, Raging Bull, etc. It seems unlikely however, I think it’ll come down to between The Favourite and Green Book.


BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

Cinematography:
Cold War, Lukasz Zal
The Favourite, Robbie Ryan
Never Look Away, Caleb Deschanel
Roma, Alfonso Cuarón
A Star Is Born, Matthew Libatique

A Star Is Born – shot by Matthew Libatique

Who will win: A Star Is Born
Who should win: Cold War

I have yet to see Never Look Away, but six-time nominee Caleb Deschanel should’ve won for his work in The Passion of the Christ (which also should’ve been nominated for Best Picture, Best Actor, etc). Out of the ones I have seen, I thought A Star Is Born and Cold War were visually ravishing. I put down Cold War as the one I’m rooting for, but I’d be equally thrilled if A Star Is Born wins.


BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM

Nominees:
Capernaum (Lebanon)
Cold War (Poland)
Never Look Away (Germany)
Roma (Mexico)
Shoplifters (Japan)

A still from ‘Shoplifters’

Who will win: Shoplifters
Who should win: Cold War

I feel like if Roma won Best Picture, then the award in this category would go to Cold War. I have heard great things about Shoplifters however, so I have a feeling that one would be Cold War‘s biggest rival.


BEST FILM EDITING

Nominees:
BlacKkKlansman, Barry Alexander Brown
Bohemian Rhapsody, John Ottman
Green Book, Patrick J. Don Vito
The Favourite, Yorgos Mavropsaridis
Vice, Hank Corwin

Who will win: BlacKkKlansman
Who should win: BlacKkKlansman

I feel like this is such an important category that no doubt people were livid that they were going to exclude this from the broadcast! I mean, people often say that in the editing room is ‘where the magic of filmmaking happens.’ Out of the ones I have seen, I really have no preference/inkling who’d win, so I picked BlacKkKlansman simply out of what I’ve read so far about it and pure gut feeling.


BEST SOUND EDITING

Nominees:
Black Panther, Benjamin A. Burtt, Steve Boeddeker
Bohemian Rhapsody, John Warhurst
First Man, Ai-Ling Lee, Mildred Iatrou Morgan
A Quiet Place, Ethan Van der Ryn, Erik Aadahl
Roma, Sergio Diaz, Skip Lievsay

Who will win: First Man
Who should win: First Man

First Man is one of those films I saw this year that was a bit of a disappointment, perhaps because I had such a high expectations. But technically I thought it was a marvel so I predict it’ll win the two sound categories.


BEST SOUND MIXING

Nominees:
Black Panther
Bohemian Rhapsody
First Man
Roma
A Star Is Born

Who will win: First Man
Who should win: First Man

It’s always a challenge predicting the sound category, I just don’t feel I have the ear for it. So based on what I said above, I think First Man would get this one as well.


BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN

Nominees:
Black Panther, Hannah Beachler
First Man, Nathan Crowley, Kathy Lucas
The Favourite, Fiona Crombie, Alice Felton
Mary Poppins Returns, John Myhre, Gordon Sim
Roma, Eugenio Caballero, Bárbara Enrı́quez

Who will win: Black Panther
Who should win: Black Panther

I have to say that even from the first time I saw Black Panther, I was in awe by its production design. It’s truly something to marvel at even the 2nd and 3rd time I saw it! The world of Wakanda is futuristic but still has the beauty and texture of Africa, I especially love the look of Shuri’s state-of-the-art lab. The world building in this fictitious country is truly astounding as it also looks and feel organic and real.


BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

Nominees:
BlacKkKlansman, Terence Blanchard
Black Panther, Ludwig Goransson
If Beale Street Could Talk, Nicholas Britell
Isle of Dogs, Alexandre Desplat
Mary Poppins Returns, Marc Shaiman, Scott Wittman

Who will win: Black Panther
Who should win: If Beale Street Could Talk

I love, love Black Panther‘s score and was humming it over and over after I saw it for the first time. But I thought Britell’s work in If Beale Street Could Talk is truly moving and adds so much to the romantic as well tragic moments of the film.


BEST ORIGINAL SONG

Nominees:
All The Stars from “Black Panther” by Kendrick Lamar, SZA
I’ll Fight from “RBG” by Diane Warren, Jennifer Hudson
The Place Where Lost Things Go from “Mary Poppins Returns” by Marc Shaiman, Scott Wittman
Shallow from “A Star Is Born” by Lady Gaga, Mark Ronson, Anthony Rossomando, Andrew Wyatt and Benjamin Rice
When A Cowboy Trades His Spurs For Wings from “The Ballad of Buster Scruggs” by David Rawlings and Gillian Welch

Who will win: Shallow
Who should win: Shallow

Despite not being a fan of Lady Gaga (I just don’t pay attention to her music before this), I absolutely love Shallow. I couldn’t stop humming it weeks after I saw it. Having won a bunch of awards already (including Golden Globe and BAFTA, also nominated for a Grammy), this seems to be the one to beat this year. The Place Where Lost Things Go is my favorite from Mary Poppins, though overall the movie itself didn’t really leave a lasting impression on me.


BEST MAKEUP/HAIRSTYLING

Nominees:
Border
Mary Queen of Scots
Vice

Margot Robbie as Queen Elizabeth in ‘Mary Queen of Scots’

Who will win: Vice
Who should win: Mary Queen of Scots

I wish Mary Queen of Scots would garner more nominations than this, but they truly deserved to be nominated just for the makeup on Margot Robbie alone, especially the chicken pox scene! I do think Vice might win this category though, for making Christian Bale look believable as Dick Cheney!


BEST COSTUME DESIGN

Nominees:
The Ballad of Buster Scruggs, Mary Zophres
Black Panther, Ruth E. Carter
The Favourite, Sandy Powell
Mary Poppins Returns, Sandy Powell
Mary Queen of Scots, Alexandra Byrne

Who will win: Black Panther
Who should win: Black Panther

I kind of have a feeling this category would come down to The Favourite and Black Panther. I love the look of Black Panther and the costumes are definitely intricate and unique, plus it doesn’t look like anything I’ve ever seen. Like the production design, it’s fitting that the clothes from a country with such cutting-edge technology would look revolutionary and futuristic, yet faithful to the African roots.


BEST VISUAL EFFECTS

Visual Effects:
Avengers: Infinity War
Christopher Robin
First Man
Ready Player One
Solo: A Star Wars Story

Who will win: Avengers: Infinity War
Who should win: First Man

It’s the only category Avengers: Infinity War is nominated for and with a budget that’s practically infinite, it’s no doubt the visual effects is astounding. It’s entirely possible the Academy would give this one award to Disney, though I thought First Man did an astounding job making the journey to the moon so believable and so visceral.


Well, those are my predictions. Feel free to let me know who you think would/should win in the comments!

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22 thoughts on “2019 Oscars Winner Predictions – Who will win, who should win

  1. I’m still so outraged on behalf of Bradley Cooper! He’s been robbed. I really hoped BAFTA would make up for it but they just rubbed salt into the wounds.
    I would LOVE Olivia Colman to win – but I’m scared it’s going to go to Glenn Close…

    1. Hey Allie, yeah I thought Bradley did a tremendous job directing his first film! Yeah Glenn Close has won SAG so she’s definitely Colman’s biggest rival in this race. I haven’t seen The Wife but Close is a great actress for sure.

  2. Well, Coleman didn’t win SAG, Close did. Close won SAG, Globes (Drama, which usually counts stronger towards Oscar unless you’re sweeping) and BFCA. Coleman was always the likelier winner at BAFTA considering the film itself, but I think Close will take the Oscar. Coleman is the only spoiler, but SAG I think sealed it for Close.

    Also, I don’t see anyone dethroning Cuaron…and it’s such a deserved win. Roma is an astonishing directorial feat.

    1. Hi Drew! Thanks for pointing out about Close winning SAG, I’ve amended that in my post. Well it’s nice that we have a neck and neck race in the Best Actress category then, I do hope it’s still possible for Colman (no ‘e’ in her last name) to win.

      I actually haven’t seen ROMA yet, hoping to see it before the telecast on Sunday.

      1. TOTALLY love that the race feels un-sewn up. I wish more categories were like this. Supporting Actress is also wide open and I even feel like it’s not just King vs. Weisz, but strongly feel like de Tavira could swoop in for a very surprise win, considering how strong Roma played.

        Roma is far and away my favorite film of the year so far, but admittedly I have a lot to see, so I can’t truly be a judge…but that being said, Cuaron has won…everything? Like, even with critics, he’s pretty much dominated. I can’t see him losing.

  3. Great predictions, and I agree with virtually every one of them. I so do want Spike Lee to win in a director category. He deserves it so much. And thanks for supporting “First Reformed”. I think it should have also been nominated for Best Picture – it is that good. I am not sure about the “Cold War” chances. It was good enough for a nomination, but I think it is a bit flawed to score so high during the Oscar night. “Shoplifters” is a finer movie, in my opinion. I also do not understand how can Japanese “Mirai” be now nominated in the Best Animation category, when in 2017 they completely ignored Japanese “Your Name”, which is so much better than “Mirai”? It does not make sense. Unless, of course, they really wanted their “Zootopia” to win.

    1. Hello! I think it’ll be between Cuaron and Spike Lee in the Director category. As for First Reformed, I just heard so much great things about the script and was surprised Schrader has never been nominated before, wow.

      Your comment made me want to see Shoplifters! I met a fellow film critic after seeing Cold War and he highly recommended that film, sounds like he’s in your corner in thinking it’s a better film. I haven’t seen ‘Mirai’ or that other film you mentioned, I should look that up.

  4. The events leading up to this year’s Oscars have been a disaster. While I’m glad they will present all 24 categories, I just feel like this year won’t be that enjoyable to watch so I’m going to skip it this year. I blame ABC for all of this mess including that godawful idea that is the Best Popular Film. If we need new categories, it should be for casting and stunt work.

    1. Hi Steven, can’t say I blame you for not wanting to see the Oscars. Yeah it’s been a mess! I’ll still watch it but not even sure yet if I wanna do a write-up after. I’m just gonna be glad Award Season will be over soon!

      Oh I totally agree they should give awards to Casting and Stunt Work!!

  5. Enjoyed reading your post Ruth! Many of my favorites weren’t nominated but that happens every year. I’m fine with Shallow from “A Star Is Born” winning, what a great song! The score from If Beale Street Could Talk was really well done and stands a great chance on Sunday as does Regina King. At least that is what the experts at GoldDerby are saying 🙂 I guess I need to see Black Panther if somehow wins Best Picture 🙂

    1. Hey there Chris! Which of the movies you championed that didn’t get nominated? I really like Mary Queen of Scots but surprised it didn’t get any love this year, not even for award faves Saoirse Ronan! You haven’t seen Black Panther?? Oh my, it’s such a good movie, not just a good SUPERHERO movie. I hope you’d give it a chance regardless it wins or not.

  6. As usual, I haven’t seen many of the movies that got nominated so I can’t really form an opinion on who should or shouldn’t win the awards. Of course if I care or watch the Oscars, I probably would have been upset too about their stupid decision to not televise best editing and cinematography categories. Guess the power of social media worked this time and they did the right thing and reversed their decision.

    It’s nice seeing Paul Schrader get some recognition for his work. I haven’t seen First Reform yet but I’ve always enjoyed his work. I think the reason for his lack of Oscars love is because he’s the type that doesn’t play by Hollywood’s rule often. He’s also the first and youngest screenwriter to have gotten paid the big paycheck back in the early 70s for his script of THE YAKUZA. I think he’s paid like $300k, which was a record for a screenwriter back in those days and there was a lot of resentment towards him in Hollywood ever since.

    1. Hey Ted, I was wondering if you’ve seen First Reformed yet. I wasn’t sure if I’m up for it as it has some horror elements but I might give it a go. Yep, I think you’re right, Schrader doesn’t seem like a guy who gives a f*** about getting kudos nor would he care to play the rules to get awards. Interesting trivia about The Yakuza, have you seen the film?

    1. Hey Courtney! I kind of want Cooper to get Best Director nod more than Best Actor, but yeah his performance is terrific in that film.

      Ah so you loved Cold War! I know you just saw it recently on the big screen, good for you!! 😀

  7. Oops! I hit the submit button before finish typing. But yes I’ve seen THE YAKUZA, it’s one of my favorite action films from the 70s and it finally came out on Bluray a few months and I just bought it. I can lend it to you if you want to see it. When the script was out back in the early 70s, many of the young directors at that time wanted to direct it. Spielberg, Lucas, Scorsese and Coppola all wanted to direct that script. But Sydney Pollack was chosen because he’s more experienced that those guys at that time.

  8. Pingback: Oscars 2019 – Reflections on winners, memorable moments – FlixChatter Film Blog

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