The obligatory Oscar 2018 predictions post: Who will win & who should win

Are you ready for the Oscars this weekend? Well like tax season, it’s not like we have a choice, it’s here whether we care about it or not. Well, it’s the year I have to do TWO filings, thanks to our short film Hearts Want, my hubby and I have to file business (LLC) tax on top of our personal one :\

What a year it has been for the film industry… I’m especially thrilled there are more discussions (that’s the start anyway before real change can take place) about women’s role and contributions that often constantly get overlooked. Before I get into more of that, check out this article on The Hollywood Reporter where THR commissioned A-list artists, sculptors and designers to reinterpret the coveted gold statuette for the #MeToo era. These are so cool, I especially LOVE #3, 11 and 12.

Jimmy Kimmel is back as the host of the 90th Oscars, I certainly hope he’d be entertaining. Check out the video of him poking fun of that crazy Best Picture mix-up, I certainly remember that moment as clear as day. Well mostly I remember how upset I was when I heard La La Land instead of the rightful winner, Moonlight! (you can see my reaction in last year’s Oscars blog recap)

Honestly, even though it’s Oscar week, I hadn’t really been thinking much about the Oscars. I didn’t even get a chance to see many of the Oscar-nominated films I’ve missed, though I did see The Breadwinner, which is one of the animated films nominated. Suffice to say, I think the nom is well deserved!

Anyhoo, I’m not predicting ALL of the categories though, and given that I haven’t seen ALL of the nominees, some predictions are merely based on what I’ve read and general buzz of the films/talents. Per tradition, I have my picks for who I think will win and the one I want to win. Click on this handy Oscar ballot from Vanity Fair if you want to see the full nominees.

So here we go:


Who will win: The Shape of Water
Who should win: The Shape of Water

Every year I have one film I’ll be rooting for. Last year it was Moonlight (which deservedly won) and this year it’s The Shape of Water. A film that swept me off my feet and one I can’t wait to see again. Like my personal favorite I championed back in 2016, Mad Max Fury Road, it’s such a singularly unique film that’s spectacularly-crafted all around. So yeah, with 13 nominations, plus a Producers Guild Awards & Directors Guild Award win already in the bag, this Guillermo del Toro’s film is surely the one to beat.



Who will win: Gary Oldman, Darkest Hour
Who should win: Gary Oldman, Darkest Hour

I feel like this could very well be the year Oldman gets his due. He’s such a stellar actor that I’m astonished he’s only been nominated one other time before, which was in Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy. Like McDormand, he’s won SAG, Golden Globes and BAFTA this year and Oscars always love actors portraying real life personas. I’ve only seen Daniel Day-Lewis’ performance in Phantom Thread in this group, and there’s a chance they might give it to him since it’s supposedly his last role before he retires from acting. If it’s not Oldman’s year again, I actually would rather see Timothée Chalamet just based on what I’ve read about his performance so far.


 Who will win: Frances McDormand,
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Who should win: Sally Hawkins, The Shape of Water

No doubt Frances McDormand is the frontrunner in this category, and her odds are strong here having won the Golden Globes, SAG, BAFTA and a slew of other awards. She is a fantastic actress and I’m glad she’s getting a meaty role here that merits all the praise.

I do have a soft spot for Hawkins’ emotional performance as a mute janitor in love with a sea creature in The Shape of Water. It’s such a sweet, poignant yet bold performance that tugs my heartstrings unlike anything I’ve seen this year. It made me think of Joaquin Phoenix’s performance in Her, which is also about an unconventional love story.



Who will win: Sam Rockwell, Three Billboards
Who should win: Richard Jenkins, The Shape of Water

Though I really want Jenkins to win this one, I certainly wouldn’t be upset if Rockwell win it. Most likely he would given he’s swept every other major award like Golden Globes, SAG, Critics’ Choice and BAFTA. He’s a consistently good actor, but like his co-star McDormand, doesn’t always get the credit he’s due. I have heard great things about Christopher Plummer so he might prove to be the upset of the night, especially given the short time span he had replacing Kevin Spacey in All the Money in the World.



Who will win: Allison Janey, I Tonya
Who should win: Lesley Manville, Phantom Thread

I’m always glad to see character actors finally getting the recognition they deserved. So in this category, I’ll be happy with whomever walk away w/ the statue. My absolute favorite is Octavia Spencer, who always enliven everything she’s in, but despite her tremendous performance in The Shape of Water, I have to hand it to Lesley Manville. Her astute performance in Phantom Thread is simply amazing, an incredibly nuanced and quiet style of acting that is so difficult to pull off. It may not be flashy, but understated can be oh so unforgettable.



Who will win: Christopher Nolan, Dunkirk
Who should win: Guillermo del Toro, The Shape of Water

This is a really tough category to predict. The Academy seem to always give Best Picture and Best Director to two different films, so either The Shape of Water wins Best Picture or del Toro will get Best Director, but not both. Dunkirk is an amazing accomplishment mostly because of the way it’s directed, taking something that could’ve easily been a run-of-the-mill war action film into something cutting edge and a movie-going experience like no other. Paul Thomas Anderson could be the upset in this category, and though I admired Phantom Thread but not in love with it, I do think it’s an exquisitely-crafted filled with stunning attention to detail.



Who will win: Blade Runner 2049
Who should win: Blade Runner 2049

I feel like every year I keep predicting that Roger Deakins will win and once again I was let down. He’s now on his 14th nominations (come on Academy!!), I mean what more visual mastery does the man have to produce to finally win this thing??! I am thrilled that this year we finally have a woman join the rank as a nominee in cinematography (Rachel Morrison for Mudbound), and she might as well be the wild card in this category. But as much as I love seeing a woman breaking new ground, I really, really wish Deakins would NOT walk away empty handed again.



Who will win: Coco
Who should win: The Breadwinner/Loving Vincent

I think Pixar just might snatch the big win here, though I personally would rather see the female-directed, female-led The Breadwinner, a poignant tale about a young girl pretending to be a boy in war-torn Afghanistan. Loving Vincent is groundbreaking in that it’s the first fully painted feature film. It took a team of 125 painters to create 65,000 frames made of oil painting on canvas, using the same technique as Van Gogh. That’s impressive filmmaking in itself and it’s quite a beautiful film.



Who will win: Phantom Thread
Who should win: Phantom Thread

This is the only category I’m rooting for Phantom Thread to win. And for a film that’s practically a love letter for the art of costume design, I’d think this is a shoo in. The attention to detail for each piece by Mark Bridges is exquisite, it’s almost every dress on Vicky Krieps tells a story, you could say the costumes are a character in itself in this film.



Who will win: The Shape of Water
Who should win: The Shape of Water

This is Alexandre Desplat’s eighth nomination and he’s already won one for Grand Budapest Hotel in 2015. But his ethereal, romantic score is absolutely magical. It’s as magnificent and otherworldly as the film, a perfect complement to the beautiful visual and story. It’s my fave score amongst the nominees by far, and one of my faves of the year. My second favorite would be Phantom Thread, followed by Dunkirk.



Who will win: This Is Me, Greatest Showman
Who should win: Mighty River, Mudbound

The only one I have actually listened to is This Is Me, and it seems it has a pretty good chance of winning despite the song writers have already won for La La Land last year. It seems in terms of its message, it resonates well in the #MeeToo era, and it IS a catchy tune. I really don’t know who I’d want to win since I haven’t listened to the others, but for argument’s sake, how cool would it be to see Mary J. Blige win this? She has already broken ground as the first person to be nominated for acting and music in the same year for Mudbound!



Who will win: The Shape of Water
Who should win: The Shape of Water

Oh man, this is this year’s Fury Road for me hands down. Though each nominee deserved its place for its amazing production design, this fantasy romance truly transport you to the Cold War era. Having just been to the del Toro’s exhibit at Museum of Arts in Minneapolis, here’s a filmmaker whose invested painstaking detail to create the universe in each film he created. I love this article how The Shape of Water transformed Ontario into 1960s America.



Who will win: War for the Planet of the Apes
Who should win: War for the Planet of the Apes

I just realized Dunkirk wasn’t nominated in this category but Kong Skull Island was, huh?? Well, amongst the nominees, I am rooting for the excellent War for The Planet of the Apes. They should’ve created a special category for Andy Serkis for his spectacular mo-cap work! I’d have loved to see this amongst Best Picture nominees even, it’s THAT good. So I’d settle for it to win this category, as it truly deserved it.



Who will win: Call Me by Your Name
Who should win: Logan

As a writer, the screenplay category is actually the toughest for me to predict. Though I haven’t seen it yet, I feel like Call Me by Your Name has the strongest shot of winning, given James Ivory’s practically an esteemed figure in the industry. I do admire the fact that Logan managed to score a nomination given the Academy’s usually ignore the comic-book genre. Well, I’m glad it did as it’s an amazing script about a scarred hero finding redemption. It felt more like a Western Noir than a superhero film, an emotional storytelling that’s concerned with character/story than mere spectacle.



Who will win: Three Billboards
Who should win: Lady Bird

I am ashamed to say I have only seen The Shape of Water out of the five nominees. So this prediction is purely based on what I’ve read so far, and Martin McDonagh seems to have a pretty strong chance of winning this. Of course I’d love to see a woman win this category, and it’s very likely Greta Gerwig will win for her screenplay rather than her directing work.


I have a feeling this year there might not be a single film that’ll sweep all of the awards, but if that happens, I hope that’ll be The Shape of Water!

I LOVE Oscar trivia!

The GoldDerby site has compiled some interesting tidbits about this year’s nominations. Here are a few of my favorites …

  • Love LOVE Octavia Spencer in practically everything, including ‘The Shape of Water’

    Octavia Spencer‘s nomination for The Shape of Water makes her the first performer to earn three Best Supporting Actress Oscar nominations in a single decade since Cate Blanchett did so in the 2000s.

  • Though Jordan Peele is not the first time an African-American director is nominated for their directing work (he’s the 5th), he IS the first African American to be honored with a trifecta nominations at the Oscars with Best Picture, Best Directing and Best Original Screenplay for Get Out!
  • Speaking of firsts, Dee Rees is the first African-American woman to be recognized for her screenwriting work for Mudbound in the Best Adapted Screenplay category!
  • Another ‘first’ for Mudbound, as DP Rachel Morrison became the first woman ever nominated for Cinematography!
  • And most people knew this already… Meryl Streep is an actor with the most nominations overall. Her work in The Post marks her 21st nomination, wow!

So that’s it folks. I’m only predicting 15 out of the complete 24 categories. We’ll see how many I’d get wrong Sunday night 😉

Ok, so what are some of your Oscar winner predictions for this year?


22 thoughts on “The obligatory Oscar 2018 predictions post: Who will win & who should win

  1. Maybe not so surprisingly, we are on the same page here, particularly with the BLADE RUNNER 2049 Cinematography win. Hoping this will FINALLY be Roger Deakins’ year.

  2. Another fun post, Ruth. I loved the title of the post, it cracked me up!
    I’ve seen about 60% of the movies and have to say, last year was so good cinema-wise that I’m just happy with the nominations. And when the winner is announced, will be delighted with almost any one of them. Although, I do have some personal favorites of mine.
    By the way, I didn’t know one had to pay LLC. I mean, that’s legit and stuff but… damn 😐

    1. Thanks Shivani! Ahah well it’s the truth 🙂 I have a ton I haven’t seen yet either but glad I finally saw Lady Bird last night and I quite enjoyed it. I thought Saoirse was amazing and I LOVE Timothee Chalamet, so cute!!

  3. In the Best Director prize, I don’t care who wins that one as they’re all deserving. Those are to me, the best of the best right now.

    As for Cinematography, Deakins better fucking win this one.

    1. I’m with you about Deakins! I think a lot of people are rooting for him, let’s hope the Academy finally gives his the award he’s way overdue!

  4. Like last year with Moonlight and La La Land dueling it out, there’s suspense with Best Picture again! I’m selecting Three Billboards to win yet could easily go to your pick The Shape of Water.
    I’d like to see Roger Deakins win for the beautiful cinematography in Blade Runner 2049, he’s overdue. Same with Oldman, give the man an oscar already. With you on War for the Planet of the Apes, the special effects (of the whole trilogy) deserve recognition.

    1. Yeah I like the suspense in Best Picture, that’s why we kept tuning in until late at night, ahah. I sure hope Shape of Water wins a ton though.

      Yes on Deakins, Oldman and the ‘Apes’ movie! May the most deserving ones win [yeah right!]

  5. As someone who don’t pay attention to awards shows, I don’t know who’ll win since I have yet to see most of the nominated movies. I’m still scratching my head as to how GET OUT got nominated for best actor, director and picture! I understand why it got nominated but to me it’s an average thriller at best.

  6. Pingback: Quick thoughts on Oscars 2018 & the winners – FlixChatter Film Blog

  7. Hi there! I’ve got a news for every enthusiast of the cinema that red this article. Now you can learn more about proces of creating the movies. Andrzej Wajda – on of the most known movie director – choosed himself his drawings and images that inspired him to make his films. Every enthusiasts of the film art should have in their home library two albums with Wajda’s drawings commented by the artists. You can get the special editions of albums and other gifts by supporting the project on crowdfunding platform. Follow us on facebook.
    Soon we will create a website. Stay tunned –

Join the conversation by leaving a comment

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in: Logo

You are commenting using your account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s