The obligatory Oscar predictions post: Who will win & who should win

Oscars2016

Well, it’s that time of the year again… tax season and the Oscars. We’re in fact doing our taxes just before I worked on this post. Both are unavoidable and obligatory, well for most of us blogging/writing about movies anyway.

This is the first year I’m actually looking forward to the opening monologue more than the main event. I can’t wait to hear what Chris Rock‘s going to say about the whole diversity issue. But hopefully the whole thing won’t be too heavy handed and we get to see him poke fun at a bunch of celebs, as to be expected.

ChrisRock

To be honest with you, even though it’s Oscar week, I hadn’t really been thinking much about the Oscars. In fact, I hadn’t been seeing anything Oscar-related the past couple of weeks, though we wanted to see Shaun of the Sheep movie last night, which was nominated for Best Animated Feature but there’s a connection issue so we watched another episode of Jessica Jones instead.

oscar-ballot-2016I’ve posted my thoughts on the nominations, but now that the big event is near, I thought I’d pick who will and SHOULD win the Oscars this year. I’m not predicting ALL of the categories though, just the ones that I have actually seen. Click on this handy Oscar ballot from EW.com if you want to see the full nominees.

So here we go:

BEST PICTURE

Who will win: The Revenant

Who should win: Mad Max: Fury Road

No doubt The Revenant is the frontrunner this year in many categories, but once the dust of award season’s settled I think Fury Road is one people will remember more in the end. It’s such a singularly unique film that’s spectacularly-crafted all around.

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ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE

Who will win: Leonardo DiCaprio, The Revenant

Who should win: Leonardo DiCaprio, The Revenant

Even without having seen his performance in full as I have yet to see the film, I think it’s safe to say this is Leo’s year.

Leo_Brie
Methinks we’ll see a repeat of Leo-Brie pairing in the leading performance category

ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE

 Who will win: Brie Larson, Room

 Who should win: Saoirse Ronan, Brooklyn

Having won pretty much every other award in this category, I think Brie will be this year’s Jennifer Lawrence. I still want to see Ronan win it though, as I think Ronan’s understated performance leaves a more lasting impression to me. It’s not a flashy role which takes an astute performer to pull it off so beautifully.

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ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE

Who will win: Sylvester Stallone, Creed

Who should win: Tom Hardy, The Revenant

I had been championing Stallone from the get go and I’m not surprised he’s the frontrunner in this category. However, part of me thinks that Hardy’s been overlooked in general despite his astonishing performance in no less than three films: Legend, Mad Max: Fury Road and The Revenant, which I read is just as compelling as Leo’s and that his character is actually more complex in the film.

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ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE

Who will win: Kate Winslet, Steve Jobs

Who should win: Kate Winslet, Steve Jobs

I have only seen two performances in this category and I for one don’t think Rachel McAdams is THAT great to be nominated. I mentioned before that I actually wished for Kristen Stewart to be recognized for Clouds of Sils Maria instead of McAdams. So I’ll pick Winslet in this lot as I was impressed by her performance.

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DIRECTING

Who will win: Alejandro González Iñárritu, The Revenant

Who should win: George Miller, Mad Max: Fury Road

I’m going to borrow Variety‘s Justin Chang’s reasoning for what he called ‘a tour de force visual storytelling’… “[Miller] gave us far more than just a master class in how to block, frame, shoot and edit action.” Amen to that, let’s hope he’s properly recognized.

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CINEMATOGRAPHY

Who will win: The Revenant

Who should win: Sicario


Fury Road
and Sicario are both spectacularly shot. But I give Sicario the edge because Roger Deakins’ visual mastery has been overlooked time and time again. This is his thirteen nominations with not a single win so far. I read this article on Deakins and his approach to his work and how his imagery is done to serve a larger purpose is why he is such a legend.

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ANIMATED FEATURE FILM

Who will win: Inside Out

Who should win: Anomalisa

Though I wasn’t blown away by the story of Anomalisa, I think it deserves to win for being such a unique piece of art. It’s one of the most lifelike claymation and the story is unconventionally dark and moody for this genre.

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COSTUME DESIGN

Who will win: Mad Max: Fury Road

Who should win: Cinderella

I think Fury Road has won many awards in this category and I certainly won’t be fuming if they win again at the Oscars. But I’d LOVE to see Sandy Powell win in either category, especially Cinderella, given the incredible amount of gowns she has to design. I’m more enamored by Cate Blanchett’s dresses, though of course Cinderella’s sparkly ballgown in iconic in its own right.

CInderellaCostumes

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MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING

Who will win: The Revenant

Who should win: Mad Max: Fury Road

I think Leo’s severe flesh wounds from the bear attack will likely garner a win for the makeup artist. But the look of the characters in Fury Road is simply astonishing and unforgettable.

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MUSIC (ORIGINAL SCORE)

Who will win: The Hateful Eight

Who should win: Sicario

One can’t deny the masterful work of Ennio Morricone, who like Deakins have never won a single Oscar for an individual piece of work (he did won an honorary Oscar in 2007). But I was blown away by Jóhann Jóhannsson’s score in Sicario, which adds so much tension and dread to the film.

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MUSIC (ORIGINAL SONG)

Who will win: Writing’s On The Wall, Spectre

Who should win: Till It Happens To You, The Hunting Ground


Anything other than Sam Smith’s song please!! I think the melody of Writing’s on the Wall is fine but the song w/ his whiny voice is more like writhing against the wall. I actually just listened to Lady Gaga’s song Til It Happens To You and it’s a powerful one on an important subject.

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PRODUCTION DESIGN

Who will win: Mad Max: Fury Road

Who should win: Mad Max: Fury Road

war_rig_FuryRoad

It’ll be Fury Road hands down in this category. I mean, the set pieces of Fury Road is unlike any other film I’ve seen. The vehicles alone are incredible, as you can see in this top 10 list. They actually built every single one of those, instead of relying on CGI effects.

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VISUAL EFFECTS

Who will win: Mad Max: Fury Road

Who should win: Ex Machina

Ava_ExMachina

I certainly won’t have any qualms if Fury Road wins again in this category. But I was thrilled to see the ‘little film that could’ Ex Machina, with its $15 mil budget get in the race. I’d love to see it win this thing because it’s a visually spectacular film that looks more expensive than it is. The look of the robot Ava alone is so unique in a plethora of robot movies in Hollywood. This film also happens to boast the first female nominee in the visual effects category in more than a decade!

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WRITING (ADAPTED SCREENPLAY)

Who will win: The Big Short

Who should win: The Big Short

The Big Short won best adapted screenplay at the Writers Guild Awards and also took the top prize at the Producers Guild Awards, so I’d think it has a big chance of taking home the Oscar. It’s really an unconventional take of a financial crisis, but the risk paid off. I wouldn’t mind The Martian or Brooklyn winning either, esp. the latter.

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WRITING (ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY)

Who will win: Spotlight

Who should win: Spotlight

I was simply blown away by this meticulous, sharp and understated film. Powerful without resorting to sensationalism or emotional manipulation. This is my second pick after Mad Max: Fury Road to win Best Picture, and if it won in this category, it’ll have a major chance of winning the top prize.

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I have a feeling this year there might not be a single film that’ll sweep all of the awards, but if that happens, I hope that’ll be Mad Max: Fury Road!

So that’s it folks. I’m only predicting 16 out of the complete 24 categories.We’ll see how many I’d get wrong tomorrow night 😉


Ok, so what are some of your Oscar winner predictions for this year?

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24 thoughts on “The obligatory Oscar predictions post: Who will win & who should win

  1. I just want Leo and Brie to win. I’ve become indifferent about it as of late. Plus, this whole Oscarsowhite bullshit turned me off even more. To me, that campaign is made a bunch of whiny, entitled, arrogant egomaniacs who are just upset because their mediocre movies and performances didn’t get recognized as it’s really a form of racism in their own part.

    1. I think both of them will win, just like in every other award so far. I hear ya about #OscarSoWhite issue, but Hollywood does have a diversity problem as a whole, so it’s started long before the Oscar ballots. In general I’m just blase about award season, I’m glad it’s almost over!

    1. Hi Peggy, happy watching tonight! Pardon my rather blase attitude about Oscars but I’ve never been more award fatigue than in any other year, not sure why but that’s how it goes. Honestly I’d rather be watching Sam Riley in anything tonight 😉

        1. He’s just incredible. The more stuff of his I watch, whether it’s movies or interviews, the more I fall deeper under his spell. Have you seen ALL of his films? I have Brighton Rock, 13, Suite Francaise to watch next. Can’t wait!!!

    1. I think she will Andina, she’s won pretty much every other award, including SAG which usually predicts the Oscar winners as well. Yep, ANYONE but J-Law, I agree!

    1. Hi Alex! Yeah I’m curious too about Rock’s monologue, but hopefully it’s not gonna be ALL about the race thing though. Anomalisa is worth seeing and I think it’s just as original, if not more so, than Inside Out and I’m a huge Pixar fan.

      1. Must be good then. Whenever someone says something really stupid masquerading as fact I think of that “I just put them back in whatever order” line referring to the globes in opinion and fact.

    1. Hello there Josh! Ahah, you love Spectre & the song AND you also didn’t hate Jupiter Ascending, what’s wrong w/ you man? 😉 Just kidding, hey we like what we like right? Yes, fingers crossed for Fury Road!!

  2. I won’t be watching the Oscars as usual but I’m sure I’ll find out who wins by just checking my Twitter or Facebook feed, lol. I’m fine with either The Revenant or Fury Road winning best picture. Although I have to disagree with you about Fury Road being more memorable, I think both films will be remembered for a long time. Both has unique styles and people will talk about them for years to come.

    1. Hi Ted, to be honest w/ you I’ve never been so award fatigue like this year. That’s why I said ‘obligatory’ as I really couldn’t care less about who wins this year. I’ll take your word for it about The Revenant, I suppose time will tell.

  3. I really hope Winslet wins, Vikander is so booooring. Hardy is so far ahead in terms of DiCaprio when it comes to the quality of performance….but let Leo have his moment at last, a shame it is happening in such an ugly Oscar season with all those misguided racism accusations when the Academy can only vote for what it out there not what people would hope is out there

    1. Hi Margaret! I think Winslet will win. I like Vikander actually, but I’m not interested in seeing Danish Girl as I can’t stand Redmayne anymore. TOTALLY AGREE about what you said about Hardy, he’s a much better, astute performer than Leo, but like you said, let him have his moment at last, he seems to want it so much more than Hardy anyway.

      Yeah I think the whole race thing makes me wish award season is over soon!

    1. Hi Courtney! Well I just posted my whole thoughts on the Oscars. I was rooting for Sly and Fury Road but y’know, can’t say I was entirely disappointed that Rylance and Spotlight winning.

  4. Pingback: My 2016 Oscar recap… in tweets, gifs and clips

    1. It was the most unscientific guesses, ahah. But I’m glad I’m wrong about the Best Picture prediction, if it’s not Fury Road, glad it went to Spotlight!

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