Counting Down to Oscar 2012 – Winner Predictions

It’s less than 24 hours until the 84th Academy Awards. But hey as my friend David @ Never Too Early Movie Predictions just posted his predictions on Friday, I suppose it’s not too late until the presenter takes out the card from the Oscar envelope, right?

As I’ve posted in my nominees predictions, I missed the number of Best Picture nominees by one (I thought they’d go with 8 noms) and I thought Bridesmaids got in instead of War Horse. So clearly my predictions has no scientific value whatsoever, it’s just for the fun of it just to see how off base (or not) I’d be 😀 I’ve also talked about my reaction to the nominations in general on this post.

So, will Oscar make history tomorrow night by awarding both the lead and supporting female acting categories to black actresses? So far only five black actresses have taken home the statuettes, and only one of them for a leading role (Halle Berry in Monster’s Ball in 2001 (per Wiki). And will a silent film instead of a ‘talkie’ win Best Picture again in 85 years since Wings took that honor? Well, we’ll find out soon enough would we?

So anyway, below is the list of nominees and the one highlighted in gold is my predicted winners:*

Best Picture
The Artist
The Descendants
Extremely Loud & Incredibly Close
Midnight in Paris
The Help
War Horse
The Tree of Life

Best Actor
Demian Bichir, A Better Life
George Clooney, The Descendants
Jean Dujardin, The Artist
Gary Oldman, Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy
Brad Pitt, Moneyball

Best Actress
Glenn Close, Albert Nobbs
Viola Davis, The Help
Rooney Mara, The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo
Meryl Streep, The Iron Lady
Michelle Williams, My Week With Marilyn

Best Supporting Actor
Kenneth Branagh, My Week With Marilyn
Jonah Hill, Moneyball
Nick Nolte, Warrior
Christopher Plummer, Beginners
Max Von Sydow, Extremely Loud & Incredibly Close

Best Supporting Actress
Berenice Bejo, The Artist
Jessica Chastain, The Help
Melissa McCarthy, Bridesmaids
Janet McTeer, Albert Nobbs
Octavia Spencer, The Help

Best Director
Woody Allen, Midnight in Paris
Michel Hazanavicius, The Artist
Terrence Malick, The Tree of Life
Alexander Payne, The Descendants
Martin Scorsese, Hugo

Best Original Screenplay
Woody Allen, Midnight in Paris
JC Chandor, Margin Call
Asghar Farhadi, A Separation
Michel Hazanavicius, The Artist
Kristen Wiig and Annie Mumolo, Bridesmaids

Best Adapted Screenplay
Alexander Payne, Nat Faxton, Jim Rash, The Descendants
John Logan, Hugo
George Clooney, Grant Heslov, Beau Willimon, The Ides of March
Aaron Sorkin, Steven Zaillian, Moneyball
Bridget O’Connor, Peter Straughn, Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy

Best Animated Feature
A Cat In Paris
Chico & Rita
Kung Fu Panda 2
Puss in Boots

Original Score
The Adventures of Tintin, John Williams
The Artist, Ludovic Bource
Hugo, Howard Shore
Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy, Alberto Iglesias
War Horse, John Williams

Best Achievement in Art Direction
The Artist
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2
Midnight in Paris
War Horse

Best Achievement in Cinematography
The Artist
The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo
The Tree of Life
War Horse

Best Achievement in Costume Design
The Artist
Jane Eyre

Best Achievement in Makeup
Albert Nobbs
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2
The Iron Lady

Best Achievement in Visual Effects
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2
Real Steel
Rise of the Planet of the Apes
Transformers: Dark of the Moon

* I left out a few categories such as editing/sound effects as well as documentaries as I have not seen any of them to have any opinion on those.

Btw, allow me to indulge a bit here by sharing this video of my beloved Gregory Peck’s gracious Oscar acceptance speech for his role in To Kill a Mockingbird. Special thanks to my friend Aurora who tweeted me the link last Friday, bless her heart!

All right, so are you going to watch the telecast tomorrow night? I’m going to see if I have the energy to live blog tomorrow. Stay tuned folks 😀

Inside the Academy Infographic – just who are the Oscar voters?

The Academy Awards are just days away. By this time next week, ardent movie fans and even casual movie fans will likely be participating in some kind of Oscar tittle tattle.

Some of you might already know that the Oscar envelope just got a new makeover last year, updating the plain white envelope design they had been using for the last 70 years. You can read about the design in this article, taking cues from old Hollywood, it’s made to look as glamorous as the ceremony itself.

It sure is pretty, but the thing that matter most about the Oscar but yet always been a mystery to me is who determine whose names that’ll get printed under the beautifully embossed lettering of “AND THE OSCAR GOES TO.” A lot are riding in that decision point, let’s face it, no matter how we as moviegoers feel about the Oscars, for the industry folks, winning or even just being nominated for an Oscar affect their career in a big way. But who really make up the 5,765 AMPAS’ voting members that largely influence the Oscar nominees and winners?

The L.A. Times did a study recently and published its finding in this article. Well, the envelope might have a fresh new look, but suffice to say that the AMPAS as an institution is still pretty much same old, same old.

A Los Angeles Times study found that academy voters are markedly less diverse than the moviegoing public, and even more monolithic than many in the film industry may suspect. Oscar voters are nearly 94% Caucasian and 77% male, The Times found. Blacks are about 2% of the academy, and Latinos are less than 2%.

Below is part of the info-graphic that illustrate the findings, you can view the complete chart here.

Apparently not much has changed since its first organizational meeting in 1927. The article did say that Academy leaders do want to diversify, but “… change is difficult because the film industry is not very diverse, and slow because the academy has been limiting membership growth for the last decade,” President Tom Sherak and Chief Executive Dawn Hudson said in the article. Ok, so we’re supposed to give the Academy points for trying?? You’d think 85 years is a long enough time to make at least a noticeable change.

Well, this race/gender inequality issue is disheartening but not exactly surprising, but what is quite interesting to learn is that the majority of members (64%) have never been nominated or win an award themselves. Now, this article also revealed that some unexpected members of the Academy, some more mind-boggling than others… Pee-wee Herman? Meat Loaf??? Erik Estrada???? Yep, they are all members whilst Woody Allen and George Lucas are NOT. Oh and apparently Viggo Mortensen actually turned down an invitation. He was invited in 2004 and was nominated for an Oscar in 2008 for Eastern Promises but the article reported that his spokeswoman said, “Viggo does not like judging art officially,” Hmmm, would that hurt his Oscar chances in the future, I wonder?

So what are your thoughts about this study folks? Surprised, appalled, don’t care? Well, let’s hear it.