Just read an interesting article the other day which I found via… what else, Twitter. Some of you probably have read it as it’s all abuzz all over social media blogs and news sites about this new finding that Twitter is apparently a killer tool to predict a movie’s success. Two researchers at HP Labs, Sitaram Asur and Bernardo Huberman extracted 2.89 million tweets referring to 24 different movies released over a period of three months, and they considered only wide-releases that opens on a Friday. Though I’m not terribly surprised by this, the stat is still pretty staggering: 97.3% accuracy in predicting opening weekend box office, outperforming the gold standard the Hollywood Stock Exchange, which has 96.5% accuracy. It’s amazing given that Twitter is less than 5 years old (launched July 13, 2006), and even with 23 million Twitterers and counting as of last January, its popularity probably hasn’t peaked yet.
You can read the entire research paper (pdf), it’s fascinating stuff though it’s highly technical, all the graphs, numbers and scientific formula stuff makes my head hurts. Castor, you surely will love all those colorful charts though 🙂
Now, I’ve been using Twitter for almost a year now, just before I started this blog, and I must say I use it a lot! Besides being a blogging publishing tool to increase traffic to my blog, I also get my news feed from it, movies or otherwise. I’ve also contribute in generating buzz for certain flicks I’m passionate about, whether it’s commenting on a trailer or throw a quip about it once I’m done watching a certain flick, sometimes even tweeting the person involved with the movie directly (i.e. Law Abiding Citizen director F. Gary Gray).
I’ve also ‘discussed’ certain movies or actors on Twitter, as I do occasionally with Fencerdiva (yes, The Jury is indeed powerful stuff) and thanks to RottenTomatoes’ tweets, I don’t have to saunter over to their site to know whether a movie is rotten or fresh. It’s probably safe to say, based on what I’ve been reading on Twitter, the comic-book action-comedy Kick-Ass will kick Date Night off the top spot this weekend.
I guess it’s inevitable that social media has changed the way the movie advertising process works. Marc at Go-See-Talk recently pondered whether viral marketing campaign (which includes, but not limited to, Facebook, Youtube, and of course Twitter) plays a key role in a movie’s success. I think the answer to that is YES, but how much of an influence obviously depends on the movie and its target audience. It’s more likely to be a much bigger factor for younger folks, as the Twitter research found out about Twilight‘s success. Certain movies and the popularity of a director/actor still plays a huge factor, too. I know I’ve made up my mind about certain flicks, such as Inception, so any viral marketing is only going to boost my anticipation and I’m less likely to be swayed by what the critics say.
So what do you think about this finding, folks? Do you use Twitter a lot in general or specifically when it comes to choosing which movies to watch?
FLIXCHATTER FILM BLOG 
I don’t use Twitter much if at all. Alas, any of you who had the audacity of following my Twitter account must have realized by now the foolishness of clicking on “Follow Castor_AM” muahahahahaa. I do turn it once in a while to read the latest update of anyone who just updated their twitter such as “sitting on sofa” or “I want to pee” but I rarely ever comment (What is there to say to that???)
Some people do get carried away with their tweets I know! I find that I’m tweeting less about myself now than commenting on movies or a piece of news/info I find interesting. Yeah, who cares if you’re going to the loo or lounging on your couch!!
That is very interesting. In recent months I have found myself quite obsessed with Twitter. Thanks to my Blackberry having Ubertwitter and then now the Twitter for Blackberry on my phone. So when I get bored I send tweets.
I often tweet about films when I am either watching a DVD or off to see something at the cinema. I can see Twitter being a very useful tool for up and coming movies. Especially if they have twitter linked to the official website as people will follow and talk about it general.
Twitter is a very useful tool as you said in being another way to draw attention to a new blog post etc.
People who owns a mobile device probably tweet more, such as in your case. Twitter is a great marketing tool for stuff other than movies as well now, some brands would give special offers for their followers, etc. It’s great for sweepstakes also, I’ve seen some filmmakers would give away free dvds of their movies for the 1000th tweet or something like that. But I’m never on it often enough to take advantage of such things though.
having endured Law Abiding Citizen, there are some words I too would like to tweet F Gary Gray
Then why don’t you, Ross? 🙂
I would need more than 140 characters.
that would be 140 more believable characters than were in that film
I never really thought of Hollywood using Twitter to track the success of a film that weekend, but it does make sense in a way. I mean like it or not, Twitter is growing and more and more people are using it on a daily basis. You really do get the common consensus by reading people’s tweets. Nice write-up!
I don’t think Hollywood was using it much in the past, but with this kind of findings, they just might do that now. The nice thing about Twitter is it’s a small time investment as you’re limited to 40 characters, as opposed to having an account on Facebook.
I can totally believe it can predict box office. In reality that’s just people saying they’re going to a flick. A big difference from saying a movie will be any good or not. And if people see lots of friends interested in going to a particular movie then naturally not to be left out they’re going to go too. Social networking is PERFECT for movie promotion – or about any other type of promotion that involves word of mouth.
It’s also fun reading tweets …
You’re right Mike, I actually tend to be swayed by what people say on Twitter on deciding whether I want to see a flick or not, than relying simply on critics. Besides, people tend to be more honest and straightforward in their mini ‘review’ of the movie and be more inclined to comment about it rather than writing a long review like bloggers do.
You know what would be fun? If, say, you found yourself in an empty theater watching a movie and you decided to tweet the whole review bit by bit. I think Aziz Ansari and his buds did that awhile back, but I can’t remember what movie.
Also, I picked your blog to participate in this thing that’s going around…
Hey I should do that, M, that’ll make things easier when I have to write the full review! Great idea!
Thanks for picking me for the meme thing, so now I don’t have to figure out what to blog about tonight!
I picked you first!
Thank you, Castor… yes you did pick me first, and if I had heard about this meme thing sooner, I’d have done the exact same thing!!
Oh dear…I really don’t want to get into twittering. As if facebooking and blogging wasn’t enough!
You know what Vanessa, it’s actually fun to just read others’ tweets, I do that more often. Plus it’s fun to read famous people’s tweets, too. I won’t ever open a Facebook account myself, though technically I had one a while ago just so I can read people’s messages, but I don’t maintain it.
Ruth,
Your work is incomparable, and for that I thank you. It’s a joy to read your work and for that I thought I would you to know I nominated you for this little blogging exercise:
http://goseetalk.com/2010/04/20/g-s-t-top-10-things-you-may-not-have-known-about-me-meme/
Don’t stop, whatever you do:)
Oh sheesh, you got me all verklempt now… [bow down head repeatedly] thank you, thank you… and all I can say is, right back at cha, Marc, I love that your blog has a nice balance of whimsical stuff and thoughtful observations about movies.
This meme thing is fun as we get to know each other a bit better in the blogging community whilst still talking about movies! Plus, now I know what I need to blog about tonight 🙂