The Winter Olympics ended last month, and now we’re diving into the “cinematic Olympics.” It feels like this award season has dragged on a bit, and it’s been a surprisingly diverse year… from vampires to ping pong to Shakespeare, there’s definitely something for everyone.
I’ve managed to catch nine out of the 10 Best Picture nominees, which is impressive considering there are two horror flicks in the mix. The only one I haven’t seen is Bugonia, which I’ve heard is packed with over-the-top gore and not for the squeamish (that’s why I’ve never watched The Substance).
I’ve filled out my Oscar Ballot, but here’s a sneak peek at my predictions for this year.
Best picture: One Battle After Another
Best actor: Michael B. Jordan, Sinners
Best actress: Jessie Buckley, Hamnet
Best Supporting Actor: Sean Penn, One Battle After Another
Best Supporting Actress: Amy Madigan, Weapons
Best Director: Paul Thomas Anderson, One Battle After Another
Best Adapted Screenplay: One Battle After Another
Best Original Screenplay: Sinners
Best Documentary: The Perfect Neighbor
Best Animated film: K-Pop Demon Hunters
Best International Film Sentimental Value
Best Casting: Sinners
Check out my full Oscar 2026 Ballot (pdf) – courtesy of Letterboxd
As we approach the 98th Academy Awards tomorrow night, it’s worth noting that it’s already making history even before the first envelope is opened. The nominations have broken multiple all-time records, changing the game for what we consider “Oscar bait” or what the Academy deems “prestigious” over the years. The 2026 lineup seems to mark a definitive sunset to the “Biopic Era” and the official rise of high-art horror.
Here are the most interesting observations from this year’s event:
The Horror “Takeover”
For decades, horror was relegated to the technical categories, but 2026 has shattered the glass ceiling. This year set a record with 27 nominations for horror-leaning films.
- Best Picture Duo: For the first time, we have two distinct horror films in the Best Picture lineup: the vampire epic Sinners and Guillermo del Toro’s Frankenstein.
- Casting History: Sinners even managed to land individual acting nods for Michael B. Jordan, Wunmi Mosaku, and Delroy Lindo—a rare feat for a genre usually ignored by the acting branch.
The Biopic “Cool-Down”
While biopics used to be the “safe bet” for Best Picture, the 2026 nominees favor original, high-concept narratives or loose literary adaptations.
- Originality Wins: Best Picture nominees like Marty Supreme, Sentimental Value, and It Was Just an Accident are driven by original scripts rather than stories based on real life.
- The “Anti-Biopic” Trend: Even the films based on real people, like Chloé Zhao’s Hamnet, are being described by critics as “spiritual folk tales” rather than traditional historical dramas. They focus on internal grief and atmosphere over chronological facts.
- The Misses: Big-budget musical biopics and sequels that followed the “traditional” formula, such as Wicked: For Good, were almost entirely shut out of the major categories.
The Big Record Breakers
- Most Nominated Film Ever: Sinners (16 nominations). It officially beat the 14-nod record held by Titanic and La La Land.
- The Horror Milestone: Sinners is the first vampire film ever nominated for Best Picture.
- The Spielberg Streak: Steven Spielberg (Hamnet) now holds the all-time record for individual Best Picture nominations (14).
This year’s nominations for The Secret Agent and Sentimental Value mark a massive moment for South American and Scandinavian cinema.
- Brazil’s Momentum: Following the nomination of I’m Still Here in 2025, The Secret Agent marks the first time Brazil has landed back-to-back Best Picture nominations.
…. - The Joachim Trier Factor: Sentimental Value is the first Norwegian film to ever land in the Best Picture category, cementing director Joachim Trier as a global powerhouse.
Acting Milestones
- A 40-Year Wait: Amy Madigan (Weapons) set the record for the longest gap between acting nominations (last nominated in 1986 for Twice in a Lifetime).
- The Twin Feat: This is the first year two actors are nominated for playing dual roles/twins in the same cycle (Michael B. Jordan in Sinners and Wagner Moura in The Secret Agent).
- The Chalamet’s Milestone: At 30, Timothée Chalamet is the youngest person ever nominated for Best Actor and Best Picture (as a producer for Marty Supreme) in the same year. He is also the first male actor since Marlon Brando to rack up three acting nominations before turning 30.
Now, if only he could learn to keep his big mouth shut about what constitutes a timeless art, and perhaps some humility and grace can’t hurt. Timothée Shalama-lama-ding-dong, here’s news for you: Ballet and opera are going to stick around way longer than any Hollywood ‘it’ boy’s moment in the spotlight.
Global & Technical Firsts
- Non-English Acting Record: A record-breaking four primarily non-English language performances from non-American productions were nominated: Wagner Moura, Renate Reinsve, Stellan Skarsgård, and Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas.
- Norway’s Big Night: Sentimental Value is the first-ever Norwegian film to be nominated for Best Picture.
- The Portuguese Surge: The Secret Agent marks the second year in a row that a Brazilian film has landed a Best Picture nomination (following I’m Still Here in 2025).
- The Wagner Moura Milestone: Wagner Moura is officially the first Brazilian man ever nominated for Best Actor.
- The New Category: Achievement in Casting is being awarded for the first time in Oscar history.
- Girl Power in Sound: The team for Sirāt is the first all-female sound department ever nominated for an Academy Award.
So are you ready for the Oscars tomorrow? Who are you rooting for this year?
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I think Best Picture will come down between Sinners and One Battle After Another as the same in the director though both Ryan Coogler and P.T. Anderson deserve it.
Jessie Buckley has it locked for Best Actress while I think Best Actor will either go to Michael B. Jordan or Wagner Moura. Timothee Chalamet was the front-runner but all of that campaigning and dissing ballet and opera made him look bad. Best Supporting Actor is tough as I think it will be a 3-way between Sean Penn, Delroy Lindo (my pick), and Stellan. The same with Best Supporting Actress as I think it will either go to Amy Madigan or Wunmi Mosaku.
I really hope K-Pop: Demon Hunters wins Best Animated Film and… Best Original Song (fuck you Diane Warren).
Yeah, it’s definitely a Sinners + One Battle After Another um battling it out this year. I would be totally fine if either PTA or Coogler win, like you said, both of them deserve it!
Yeah, Buckley is a lock but I’m very curious if Chalamet’s cockiness would lead to him not winning this year. I personally would rather see Jordan or Moura winning. Those are talented AND classy guys.
I really want to see Stellan win but at the same time, Lindo has been passed over so many times.
Yeah, let’s hope Warren would NOT win… plus Golden is such an amazing song!
As usual, I somehow thought the Oscars already happened. Fair to say that I won’t be watching the actual show. But I’m shocked too that Sinners received so many nominations. The film came out way early last year and typically, the Oscar voters tends to forget about films that came out that early parts of the year. Glad it received the nominations and hope it will win some too!
That’s true that Academy voters tend to favor those that get released closer to the end of the year, but Sinners has overcome a lot of things, esp the horror curse, to be the frontrunner. Very impressive; in many ways, Coogler has already won!
My predictions this year are nearly an exact copy of yours, Ruth, except in one category: Cinematography. My pick is One Battle After Another, which after tomorrow, they might consider renaming “One Oscar After Another”.
You made a very interesting comment that biopics are no longer Oscar safe bets. Only a few years ago a biopic like the one on Bruce Springsteen would be an automatic front runner and Jeremy Allen White a sure bet for Best Actor. Few can even recall the movie title now.
On the subject of Best Actor, I’ll be looking out for Timothee Chalamet’s reaction when he hears Michael B Jordan’s name called instead of his. If he doesn’t win, then I guess it’s true when producers call you a “cocky little s—”, you don’t get their respect or their votes. If he wins, though, they’ll need to expand the Dolby Theatre just to house his overblown ego.
Would be hilarious if Conan O’Brien incorporates ballet and opera into the ceremony.
Hi Patrick! I think Sinners and One Battle After Another will be neck and neck this year. Both films look fantastic visually, so I’m good if One Battle win in that category.
I haven’t mustered enough interest to see the Springsteen biopic; I don’t remember the title either, ahah. I guess I’ve never been a huge Springsteen fan, so I’m not sure if I’ll ever see it.
I’m not impressed with Marty Supreme at all and didn’t think it was even worth being a Best Picture nominee, so Chalamet’s cockiness just makes me like it even less. Ahah, your comment is spot on! If he did end up winning, the Dolby Theater might combust from his overblown ego. I sure hope Conan would at least make a jab in support of ballet and opera, but incorporating that into the ceremony would be golden!! Speaking of Golden, I’m rooting for K-Pop Demon Hunters!!
Great predictions for the upcoming Oscars. While I won’t get to see the ceremony due to the time zone differences here in Pakistan, I am rooting for certain movies. When it comes to Best Picture, I have the feeling it will be between Sinners and One Battle After Another. I adore both movies but feel as though Sinners deserves it more. I just feel Ryan Coogler created a true work of art that transcended the horror genre. It has so many layers to it being more than just a vampire movie. I also feel it’s one of the movies nominated appealing to both audiences and critics alike. For these reasons, I would truly love to see it take home Best Picture.
Here’s my thoughts on “Sinners”:
Hey Hasan! Yeah, I think everyone would be in a tizzy during the Best Picture announcement; it’ll come down to Sinners and One Battle After Another for sure! I think both Coogler and PTA both deserve to win, maybe they’ll split it and one would win in the Best Picture and the other in the Best Director category, we’ll see!
As for Best Actor, I sure hope we hear Michael B. Jordan’s name called out instead of Chalamet!! 🤞
Conan O’Brien is a great choice to host. I didn’t know that about Brazilian films. What a great achievement.
Yeah, Conan did a pretty good job overall, I enjoyed him as a host, I wouldn’t mind him coming back next year.
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